GCC Green Hydrogen and Ammonia.
While the world cancelled, the Gulf built.
The Gulf has decoupled from the global hydrogen correction. Roughly 60 major projects globally were cancelled in 2025 (over 4.9 Mtpa). The IEA cut its 2030 outlook from 49 to 37 Mtpa. Across the same window, NEOM crossed 90% completion and Hydrom secured $49B in committed capital. The Gulf is now one of the few jurisdictions delivering at scale.
The flagship Saudi assets reached financial close before the correction hit. NEOM Green Hydrogen Company achieved $8.4B financial close in 2023 — $6.1B non-recourse from 23 banks, with a 30-year Air Products offtake. Yanbu Green Hydrogen Hub is in FEED with FID due 2026 and EnBW signed as ammonia offtaker into Port of Rostock. Both projects survived the cycle because offtake was secured first.
Oman built an auction model that turned ambition into committed capital. Hydrom awarded eight projects across Duqm and Dhofar through Rounds 1 and 2, securing $49B in commitments and 30+ GW of paired renewables. Round 3 launched April 2025 with bids due early 2026. The model is transparent, repeatable, and bankable — a structural advantage as global capital flees less-disciplined geographies.
The argument continues across 2 further sections of the paper.
The depth behind the thesis.
The page above is the argument. The paper is the evidence behind it: named transactions, sector-specific data, the regulatory references in full, and the closing position with its implications for capital allocation.
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